UPDATED In 1776, men of Menotomy died battling Redcoats retreating from Lexington. In 2024, many Arlington voters fight to keep a convicted felon out of the White House, as perennial third-party candidate Jill Stein could help provide the edge Trump needs to win.
Lexington and Menotomy; Lexington and Arlington: Ah, the parallels of history.
Then patriots fought to be freed from English rule. Now many in town seek to oppose a potential fascist.
I do not know how Arlington residents will vote Tuesday, Nov. 5, but fresh voter-registration numbers from the town clerk offer clues.
What color is your voting bloc?
Many regard our town as fully “blue,” or having a majority of Democrats. It doesn’t.
October stats run this way: Unenrolled (or independent voters) top Democrats, 18,158 to 13,648. Registered Republicans add up to 1,308.
“Red,” we are not, but “blue”? Appears that a strong trend toward independence holds sway here.
67 registered to 3rd parties
Consider some other flavors of independence: 67 in town are registered to third parties. Out of the 33,114 total registered in town, a high total historically, 67 is a small number. Here’s the list:
Pirate: 7
Pizza Party (no website, but recognized by the secretary of state): 5
American Term Limits (no website, but recognized by the secretary of state): 1
Libertarian: 0
Green Party: 0
How ‘green’ are we really?
Note that last one, the party for which Dr. Stein of Lexington is again a presidential candidate. Perhaps surprisingly, no one in Arlington, known as a “green town,” has registered for the Green Party.
So no problem here, right? Arlington voters will not be among those significantly supporting third parties.
Still … still … polls show this presidential election airtight-thin close. Consider the reporting at the polling-evluation site 538 >>
I welcome third parties — indeed, I personally agree with many of Dr. Stein’s positions — but in an election where democracy is at stake, I believe that continued persistence of such voting efforts subtracts from Harris and favors Trump.
Query sent to Stein campaign
Here’s the query I sent to the Green Party contact form Oct. 22: “Can Jill explain how her third-party effort will not help reelect Trump?”
I sent the same with a brief intro to Green Party press inquiries >>
If I get a response, I will update this opinion column.
I pray that third-party efforts helping lead to a decline of freedoms established since 1776 fail.
Town residents have until 5 p.m. Saturday to register to vote, or by midnight online.
This opinion column by YourArlington founder/president Bob Sprague was published Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. It was updated to change “accused criminal” to “convicted felon.” These views do not amount to a political endorsement. These are personal opinions based on how I see the data presented.
A few notes and clarifications
1. Most of those parties you listed aren’t recognized as political parties in Massachusetts. There are only [url=https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/voting-information/political-parties-and-designations.htm] three recognized parties[/url] in Massachusetts as of this writing: Democrat, Republican and Libertarian. The rest are currently political [i]designations[/i]. Designations become recognized parties by either exceeding 1% of registered voters or by exceeding 3% in a statewide race. The Green-Rainbow Party, the affiliation under which Green Party candidates run in Massachusetts, float in and out of officially recognized status depending upon whether they exceed that 3%. Almost no one registers as political designations in the state, as they aren’t even listed as options on the voter registration form.
2. I don’t think too much can be gleaned from the party registration numbers alone. There is a very strong incentive to not register in any non-Democrat Party in this state, because that prevents you from voting in the Democratic primary, which are usually the only elections in this state that are competitive. Registering Republican, Green or any other party means giving up your chance to have a meaningful impact in our state elections. As a result, people that might otherwise register with these parties choose to stay Unenrolled instead.
3. We know Harris has a 100% odds of getting the most votes in Massachusetts and therefore winning 100% of our electoral college votes. An individual vote for Stein here in Massachusetts has zero chance of changing that outcome. So at least among the readership of YourArlington, such a vote won’t meaningfully hurt Harris or help Trump. The only thing it [i]might[/i] do is help the Green-Rainbow party cross the 3% threshold to become a major party again, which may be of interest to someone seeking to increase the likelihood of general election competition in the state.